Federal Government Raises 2026 Budget Deficit Forecast to R$80.9 Billion
Previous Projection Was R$52 Billion. Economic Team Announced the Containment of R$16.1 Billion from the Budget and Asserts It Still Foresees Meeting the Fiscal Target
The federal government raised from R$ 52 billion to R$ 80.9 billion the primary deficit forecast for 2026. The figures are from the assessment of revenues and expenditures presented on Thursday (24). The primary deficit occurs when expenses exceed revenues, without considering the interest of dívida pública.
Despite the worsening projection, the economic team says it still expects to meet the fiscal target. The difference is due to the expenses that the legislation allows to take from the calculation used to verify the goal. With these exceptions, the government estimates that R$ 13.6 billion would be lacking to reach the lower limit allowed.
Budget will have R$ 16.1 billion contained
To compensate for this difference, the government announced a contingency of R$ 13.6 billion. It will also maintain R$ 2.4 billion in blocks, totaling R$ 16.1 billion in resources contained in the Budget.
The two mechanisms have different motives. The contingency seeks to adapt the expenses to the expected collection and the fiscal goal. The blockade is used to adjust spending to the limits established by the tax rules.
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The blocked amount fell from the previous valuation, when it was R$ 17.9 billion. According to the economic team, the change stems from a lower forecast for mandatory expenses, including spending on personnel, Social Security and social benefits. The reduction of the blockage, however, was accompanied by the new contingency.
What happens now
The central target for 2026 is a primary surplus of 0.25% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), equivalent to about R$ 34.3 billion. The government works with a tolerance band to assess its compliance and says it expects a result above the floor of that band.
The R$ 80.9 billion is a projection for the end of the year, not a deficit already registered. The estimates may change in the next assessments, depending on the collection and actual expenses. The fourth quarter report is available at the Transparent Treasury.
