Study predicts up to 13,300 deaths in Brazil with Super El Niño heat

The extreme heat caused by the Super El Niño could cause 13,000 deaths in Brazil, most in the North and Northeast regions, according to a report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Laboratory, released on Wednesday (23).

The country should be the most affected in Latin America by the phenomenon, characterized by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

In all, 451,000 deaths are expected on the planet by February 2027 with the most intense occurrence of El Niño in recent years.

"We've been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops for a long time and now we can predict the impact in the worst possible scenario: death," said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Laboratory and a professor at the University of Chicago.

“This number ... includes parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people who go to work, take care of their families and live their lives,” he added.

Because of the Super El Niño, which began in June 2026, the extremely hot days are expected to almost double by February 2027, being at least 1.2 degrees Celsius (oC) above normal compared to previous years, which may intensify in summer.

Global South will be more affected

According to the report, the regions that tend to be most affected by Super El Niño are concentrated in the global South.

Brazil is among the five countries with the highest estimated number of deaths, in the fifth position of the ranking, according to the report. The most critical period in the country is expected to be the summer, between December 2026 and February 2027.

The survey draws attention to higher estimates of mortality in the North and Northeast, especially in Pará, with the estimated death of 2,300 people, Maranhão, with another 1,300, in addition to Amazonas and Bahia, with 1,200 each.

The country is preparing with the installation of bases of the Ministry of Health, called Força Nacional of the Unified Health System, which have equipment and personnel to act during emergencies and disasters.

In the list of countries in the most critical situation, Brazil is preceded by India, Sudan, Indonesia and Nigeria.

In the Americas, the closest country to Brazil are the Estados Unidos, with 3,500 deaths more than in a normal year. Venezuela, with an additional 2,300 deaths, and Colombia, with 2,200, also stand out.

In Africa, the report projects 67,000 deaths, with most of the lives being lost in the Sahel, the transition region between the Sahara in the north and the savannas in the south.

Nearly half of this death toll should be concentrated in Nigeria. The country will suffer 31,400 deaths, ahead of Sudan, which will face 17,500 additional heat deaths, Niger, 10,000, and Chad, 8,000.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia can reach 19,400 deaths above normal. And in India, another 15.8 thousand.

Sample of the future

Estimated numbers may increase even further if El Niño extends, the researchers say. They claim that the phenomenon is a sample of the temperatures that will be more common going forward, a kind of “postcard of the future”, than the planet will become with the advance of climate change.

To reduce mortality, experts recommend multilateral humanitarian efforts in proven effective actions such as heat alerts, installation of cooling centers and hydration points, as well as protection of the most vulnerable population and workers. The measures must be started immediately.

“Increasing emergency response capacity and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, when today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency,” said Tamma Carleton, co-author of the report.

The head of research at the Climate Impact Laboratory and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, warns: “We need to mobilize resources now to design, implement and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years to come.”

To calculate the death toll, the researchers used previous studies that related temperature and mortality in different regions, taking into account the local climate, vulnerability of the population and adaptability of each country and region.

 

Also read: New law increases penalties for theft and theft of fuel